Free Super Bowl Pick

Everyone who bets on a sporting event has their own way to do it. Some handicap. Some buy picks. Some chase moves. Some create power ratings. Some do a combination of all the above. Personally, I tend to follow value. Betting sports is similar to almost any type of gamble. Somewhere mixed in with someone screaming BLACKJACK or TOUCHDOWN, the house has an edge. Depending who you believe, the general consensus is with a -110 vig/juice, for every single wager you place long term the house/bookie will keep 4.54% of every dollar you wager, or $4.54 of every $100.00 put into action.

Of ANY U.S. based sporting event, the Super Bowl is probably the #1 wager that the books actually put more emphasis on the public over what a sharp bettor may think. The urban myth of equal action on the majority of wagering never happens, because once a sharp bets into somewhere like CRIS or GREEK and they move, the rest of the betting world is forced to move with them REGARDLESS if 100% of their action is on the other side. Just look at our odds page and you will see everyone basically with the same lines on all games in all sports. So all the books have the exact same action on everyone? Yeah right. With the Super Bowl, there is ENOUGH public action since everyone from the dog to grandma will be laying down the bet, the books are forced to trump the sharps with Joe Public action. A few years back, a sportsbook (that folded soon after) decided the "sharp" play was the Rams -14.0 over the Patriots and felt they would lay a -14.5 and GET ALL the Patriots actions since the wiseguys loved the Rams in a blowout. As mentioned, this book is no longer in business and the $ was so overwhelming on the Patriots (also an outright win for those who forget), that is was downhill for them from there.

This brings us near to close and the final point. KEY NUMBERS. Of ANY sport, the number 3 is GOD in football. The king of what people call KEY NUMBERS, 3 is the undisputed champion. Many offshore bookmakers and a handful of sharps I respect felt this number should probably be around a -3.0 in favor of the Colts. The current line is sitting at a -5.0. Outside of the fact I personally like the Saints (I will never claim to be a great handicapper), the fact sources of mine like the value on the Saints PLUS we are 2 full points of what the number probably should be I can't pass up the +5/+5.5 on New Orleans. Is this a lock by any means? Of course not. If you bet on everything year round, the Super Bowl is just another game that you may toss some extra on due to the fact it is, well, of course, the Super Bowl. In the end it is a value bet. If you put 100 games in front of me that I though the line should be +3 and you give me +5, I would bet all 100 at +5 without even knowing who the teams were.

So with that being said, my Super Bowl selection is the New Orleans Saints +5.0.

Good luck to everyone.

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